Get Off The Internet!

At the risk of sounding melodramatic and of telling some in the Netroots what they may already know, I think it's necessary to highlight something that may not be adequately clear to many here in Left Blogistan: We have a nearly unprecedented opportunity to SWAMP the Republicans--but only if people will commit to getting off the blogs, and on the ground for significant portions of the next 15 months.

Now, don't get me wrong: most people who have read my posts over the last couple of years know that I tend to be a blog triumphalist: I know that simply electing Democrats doesn't solve everything, that the media must be held accountable for progressive electoral messaging to gain traction, and that, as Al Gore says in his must-read Assasult on Reason, blogs on the left and right create a much-needed two-way conversation between the government and the people--a conversation that has been sorely lacking for almost a century.

That said, however, there have been three recent events that have changed my perspective and priorities in a large way. These events are the reason why I haven't been around the blogs as much over the last few weeks, and why I haven't slept more than 6 hours in I can't remember how long. These events have crystallized a cold, hard fact to me that makes me giddy with excitement and drunk with the passion to evangelize everyone I can to understand the following fact: This election, in 2008, we have the opportunity to crush the Republican Party in a way that may not be repeated in our lifetimes--but we need your time and volunteerism to do it.

The first of these occasions was attending training sessions put on by Democracy for America here in Orange County. A two-day crash course in the nuts-and-bolts of running a successful electoral campaign, this training is the best money and time that I can remember spending anywhere. DFA is also conducting training at YearlyKos--something people may want to consider doing as part of their stay in Chicago.

Among the many key points impressed upon me at the training was the cold, hard mathematical realities involved in running a campaign: everything--and I do mean everything--comes down to a simple calculation of

• Votes needed
• The time to persuade and GOTV
• The money to persuade/GOTV them with
• The people to do the persuading/GOTV

Once you figure out how many votes you're going to need to reach 52% based on previous comparable election and where those votes are, it's really just a simple math problem of volunteer hours, number of volunteers, and amount of money to spend on reaching voters. It's really that simple. Sure, a candidate like Paul Hackett who runs a true grassroots populist campaign can gain traction and do better than the numbers would indicate, and a corrupt Republican can do worse, and one major gaffe can throw everything off. But in most cases, it's just a matter of of time, people, and especially money.

The second key occasion was mentioned by Markos on the dKos frontpage just yesterday: The GOP money advantage has all but disappeared in 2008. I cannot begin to express how important this is. Throughout the past several decades, the Republicans have had weaker positions and an uphill road in convincing the American people of electing politicians actually contrary to their own self-interest. Pulling that off requires an extraordinary amount of time, money, volunteers and discipline--and in that respect, Dems actually have it easy: all we have to do is go out there and tell the truth, and we automatically tip the playing field in our favor. Even so, the Republicans have largely been able to overcome this disadvantage by doing two things:

• Organizing an army of volunteers through churches and other conservative organizations, while weakening our own organizations such as unions
• Taking the time to build their party infrastructure all across America even when it wasn't campaign season
• And most importantly, outspending Democrats by factors of 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 and more during every election cycle

Now, everything has changed. As of today, the DCCC has over 10 times as much cash as the NRCC. In 2006, the NRCC had a $40 million fundraising advantage over us. As of today, the DSCC has almost 4 times as much money as the NRSC. In 2006, the DSCC did better, but not by a factor of four. And this year, the RNC's advantage over the DNC is shrinking--and will be almost entirely spent on the Presidential election. As Markos says,

Making matters worse for congressional Republicans, the RNC, which was able to focus on House and Senate races in 2006, will be refocused on its usual mission in 2008 -- the White House. So while the RNC was able to make up some of the 2006 shortfall experienced by their Senate committee, and the smaller than usual advantage by their House committee ("only" a $40 million advantage), they can't be expected to make up this year's dramatic shortfalls while still focusing on winning the presidency.

Meanwhile, Democratic presidential candidates are showing that their own fundraising negates the necessity for leaning on the DNC.

Meanwhile, Howard Dean's 50-state strategy is building the local parties, as well as concentrating on doing some important behind-the-scenes work, such as getting our voter files up to speed with those of the Republicans.

The third event to change my perspective has been working on the Ron Shepston campaign against Dirty Gary Miller in CA-42. The amount of complacency and corruption that has taken hold of the Republican party in many of their "safe" districts like Miller's is absolutely unbelievable. Most people in these areas (unless they're dominated by SBC evangelical Christians) hold centrist or even progressive values--they just haven't been given the opportunity to consider voting for a real Democrat who shares their values. Ron Shepston--and many other candidates like him--can definitely win if we pull together and provide the support they need, because the traditional advantages that the Republicans have used to crush great candidates like him are disappearing fast.

The conclusion is inescapable: as Democrats, we are drowning the Republicans with our fundraising. All the issues are lining up in our favor. The American people are with us. Every time the GOP opens its mouth, it is on the defensive. We are poised to make substantial gains in the Senate. Our presidential candidates are far more inspiring than theirs.

All we need is the time and volunteers to get out there and canvass, phonebank, drop literature, etc., to make the final push to convince wavering voters--those undecideds and leaners we call the 2s, 3s, and 4s--to get out there and vote for Dems in '08.

And it's NEVER too early to volunteer. If you have a candidate in your area facing an uphill battle against a GOP incumbent, or a candidate in your area facing a tough re-election battle in a conservative district, get off the internet for a minute and figure out how much time you can schedule to volunteers for that candidate over the next 15 months today. Some candidates may even have tough primary fights and may need all the support they can get right now. But in any case, contact your local candidates today to ask them what you can do to help provide them that crucial time and volunteer help they need.

And then when you're done, get back online and keep holding the media and the government accountable to the people. Because this election is an opportunity like we may never see again in our lifetimes.

Panicked White House Posts on RedState, Lies to its Base

I never thought I would see the day when the White House would be so panicked at the derailment of a particular bill by its own base that it would feel to need to post about it on the front page of a conservative blog in its own name.

I also never thought I would see the day when a respected community blog would simply allow a White House official to post on its frontpage--not even a promoted article or quote from an email, mind, but an originally authored piece.

Finally, I never thought I would see the day that George Bush had to defend himself from Republicans on charges of letting terrorists into America unsupervised and uncontrolled.

Apparently, I was wrong. Apparently, a fractured corporatist/xenophobic base can lead to some seriously strange results: a mendacious takeover of a right-wing blog by the very White House it was supposed to be holding accountable.

Case in point: today's frontpage post by Kerrie Rushton of the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives with the amazingly defensive title, Are Convicted Criminals And Terrorists Barred? Yes!

Wanted to take a moment to clarify what is in the bill regarding the Z program and convicted criminals and terrorists. The contention that they are not barred from the Z program has been making the rounds today.

The range of crimes that disqualify applicants from the Z program extends into the thousands and includes any felony (murder), any three misdemeanors (theft, although felony theft would be covered in the prior category), any aggravated felony (rape), any serious criminal offense (assault), most crimes involving moral turpitude (fraud), and any violation of a law relating to a controlled substance. These bars are not waivable by anyone -- period. You can view the bill language on this provision on pages 282 to 284.

Terrorists are not eligible for the legalization program. Period. And this bar is not waivable by anyone. Period. Again, this is spelled out on pages 282 and 284 of the bill, without ambiguity or room for debate. The bill also contains a whole host of new tools to fight criminal, dangerous, and terrorist aliens.

Thanks,
Kerrie Rushton
White House Office of Strategic Initiatives

Of course, today is ground zero for the White House on this bill: George Bush desperately wants it to pass to please his corporatist, cheap-labor-loving base. Karl Rove and other GOP strategists desperately want to pass it in the hopes of winning the hearts and minds of the growing Latino voter population. Harry Reid, meanwhile, is taking a standoffish approach and calling it George Bush's bill--a brilliant political maneuver that leaves Republicans in a lose-lose situation. With a second cloture vote coming up tonight in the wake of the first failed cloture vote and major arm-wringing going on behind closed doors, it's now do-or-die desperation time for the bill's White House backers.

And the xenophobic base isn't buying. Most of the angry comments in response to this post point out that many undocumented immigrants have probably broken a number of laws ranging from trespassing to tax evasion to the use of fradulent government documentation such as social security numbers and driver's licenses that would not show up on the government's registry. Further, others point out the improbability of all of these background checks' occurring within the 24-hour period mandated by the bill. Yet others make the obvious declaration that terrorists are already barred from citizenship in any case.

While many of these comments skirt around why this propaganda effort on the part of the White House is such a lying bamboozle, none of them really get to the heart of the matter. The one major overlooked key to this is, as many of the wingnuts point out, the fact that only convicted terrorists are excluded from the "amnesty" provisions of the bill. What it doesn't exclude from this process is that uniquely Bush Administration status so often defended by these very same wingnuts: the suspected terrorists on the vaunted Terrorist Watchlists.

Some of you may remember my writing about Senator Lautenberg's brilliant legislation entitled "Denying Firearms and Explosives to Dangerous Terrorists Act of 2007", granting Alberto Gonzales the direct authority to prevent those on the terrorist watchlists from purchasing firearms or explosives. This legislation was crafted in the wake of the Virginia Tech shootings and was met with strong uproar from the gun nuts, putting Republicans in the uncomfortable situation of either dismissing their gun nut base, or seeming to to be unconcerned with suspected terrorists' access to high-power weaponry.

This little legislative loophole in the immigration bill has the same effect: the White House is only disbarring convicted criminals from obtaining Z-Visas, while saying the bill contains tough anti-terrorism measures--all while insisting that terrorist watchlists, Patriot Acts and warrantless spying on Americans are necessary for the nation's very survival.

Regardless of the fate of this immigration bill, the Bush Adminsitration must be called on this two-faced, lying hypocrisy. Either strict use of the terrorist watchlists is necessary to defend America or it isn't. Even if this bill dies in the Senate today, the desperate pleading on behalf of the White House to conservative bloggers to ignore the issue of terrorism as it relates to immigration in spite of its past horrendous authoritarian overreaches in name of "keeping America safe", provides the single best wedge since the Dubai Ports Deal to drive between the Republicans' twin corporatist and xenophobic bases.

Meanwhile, the comments on the part of the RedStaters border on the furious--both towards the White House itself and towards the RS editors for allowing the White House to post onto the front page:

Regardless, the bill is by jyaklin
Regardless, the bill is terrible and does significant damage to the country. Prove you can fix the crossing problems and maybe then we'll listen. As for Bush, it's too bad the Democrats won't impeach him.

With all due respect to the REDSTATE staff... by ChiefMinion
I'm curious as to how this post ended up on the front page. If some White House hack states that this is not "amnesty", is that going to get posted as well?

With all due respect by Achance
and we can argue about what respect is due, what on Earth would make any sane person think that the federal government could not only do something right, but do it right in 24 hours? This is a sham and the Administration is playing the American people for fools. Anyone who believes that the US will make even the slightest attempt to enforce the border crossing and criminal acts pieces of this bill is so stupid as to be fit only for slavery. The Bush Administration and the Republican leadership have ZERO credibility on this subject, so write away. Do appreciate the time you took to try to give us a snow job, though.

Pass the popcorn, because things are just starting to get interesting...